(o) What Do Fiji Citizens Really Think?

FijiLive runs readers polls that can be answered on line. Looking at 20 political polls since October last year allows some broad conclusions, with these reservations. Unfortunately, the polls are far from scientific. They are not random samples of opinion. We know nothing of the numbers polled, and nothing about the pollsters themselves other than that they ticked yes or no to certain questions. Some of the questions could have been better worded. We can be reasonably sure, however, that the results reflect the honest opinions of those polled. Here are some of the results:

On Chiefs and Church
Late last year in two polls pollsters were asked whether Bainimarama should apologize to the chiefs. 76 and 63% ticked No. This question has no value unless we at least know the ethnicity of the pollsters. A March poll asked whether the Methodist Church conference should be allowed also had little validity unless Methodists were fairly represented. 57% ticked no.

On Early Elections
Several polls asked about holding early elections as demanded by the international community. To secure $350m aid to help the sugar industry, 57% ticked yes. To comply with the PI Forum ultimatum, 58% ticked no (although 52% thought Fiji's suspension justified) but 64% thought the international community should not "relax pressure to hold early elections."

On UN Peacekeepers
On new hiring new Fiji peacekeepers, 66% ticked yes.

On Sanctions and Travel Bans
Four polls were on sanctions and travel bans. In December, 72% thought that Australia and NZ should "soften" their stance. This month 68% thought there was "too much unnecessary pressure" and earlier, in February, 62% thought Fiji's Pacific neighbours should not impose bans.

On the Internal Situation
There were four polls on the internal situation. In October last year 63% thought the NCBFF and People's Charter processes were "a waste of taxpayers' money." This was not a good question because we do no know the effect of costs on process. A more carefully worded question would not have linked the two. In April, 56% thought the President had done the right thing in abrogating the 1997 Constitution, but only 38% thought Fiji would return to democracy by 2011. Earlier this month, 81% thought the political parties should support the Government's initiatives to take the country forward. The first and third polls (NCBFF and 2011) seem at odds with the other two.

Conclusions?
What can be concluded from this hotchpotch? If the polls are at all indicative of public opinion, the overriding conclusion is that the country is deeply divided. Only on one issue was the poll clear-cut: 81% wanted an independent body to investigate complaints against lawyers!

Economic considerations seem to moderate political positions (EU aid and UN peacekeepers) . Most pollsters did not approve external sanctions, threats and ultimatums (the Australian, NZ and PI Forum), but most people (64%) wanted some external pressure on the Government to hold early elections.

A high proportion wanted the political parties to support Government initiatives (presumably on the assumption this would mean a quicker return to democracy) which is a positive sign; but that only 38% of pollsters in April thought Fiji would return to "democratic rule by 2011" is less encouraging.

There was considerable support for "early" elections but an equally strong indication that many people did not welcome others telling them what to do.(56% approved the abrogation, and the response to perceived outside interference) But who they were, and why they thought so, we have no way of knowing.

A regular, properly constructed poll on key political issues could be an important tool for government. It would also give foreign government and agencies a more "independent" measure of Fiji public opinion than they have at present.

POSTSCRIPT. Our own poll on whether Australian and NZ policies are too inflexible resulted in 73% ticking Yes and 27% ticking no. While only 46 people answered, it is good to see that people of different persuasions are visiting the site.