Matters seem to be coming to a head in Fiji, and tomorrow may tell us which way they are heading.
First, former USP and current ANU academic, Dr Jon Fraenkel, has caste doubts about whether the Interim Government is genuine about holding elections, a view shared by others in and out of Fiji. Events tomorrow may provide an answer to this question.
Second, Bainimarama has put four conditions on the attendance of the SDL, UPP, NFP and the NVTP parties at tomorrow's meeting of political leaders. The Fiji Times says that two of the conditions include "reform of the communal system of voting and not dealing with 'partisan media'." The exclusion of these parties would make the meeting totally unrepresentative.
Third, National Federation Party's Pramod Rae has reminded the Interim Government it has only until May 1 to set the date for an election that must be held by the end of the year, or face "targetted measures" by the PI Forum.
Fourth, January's PI Forum meeting in Port Moresby* recognized "long-term issues that need to be addressed in Fiji, including ... independent and inclusive political dialogue; but that such dialogue must be primarily focused on the holding of elections. The dialogue process should not be the cause for further delay in holding elections."
Fifth, the IG has made it repeatedly clear that it will proceed with the processes leading up to the President's Political Dialogue Forum (which include tomorrow's meeting) and will not be coerced to hold elections before the electoral system has been changed.
So, what do we have? An IG that insists on political reforms (to abolish race-based electorates) before holding elections; an opposition that stands to lose by those reforms (although some timed compromise may be possible); a meeting to set the stage for the discussion of these issues (to which the opposition may be excluded); and the PI Forum and several western governments insisting on agreement by all political stakeholders and early elections before reforms -- or else.
The situation may be further aggravated (the timing could not be worse!) by the decision of the Fiji Court of Appeal on the legitimacy or otherwise of the President's action appointing the Interim Government. The Court's decision, which must anger one or the other party, is expected tomorrow. If the IG is deemed illegal, and former PM Qarase carries out his promise to advise the President to formally dissolve (the old) Parliament and convene early elections, "all hell could break loose." Neither party, whatever it may now say, is likely to accept a contrary decision without protest. And this is putting it mildly.
The situation seems headed towards a meeting of the proverbial immovable force with an irresistable object. We can only (once again) hope, pray and cross our hearts and fingers, that wise heads will prevail and the collision is averted. -- Crosbie Walsh.
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* Click on "Background Material" in the lefthand column to read the PI Forum Port Moresby communique, and the Biketawa Declaration to which it refers. In part, the communique "Called on the Interim Government to take the following actions to demonstrate its commitment to the restoration of parliamentary democracy in Fiji: (i) provide to Forum Leaders a new timetable agreed with all key political stakeholders, specifying in detail the agreed steps to elections and a return to democracy, and the timing for completing them, reflecting a consensus reached through a genuine, open, inclusive dialogue without threats, preconditions, ultimatums or predetermined outcomes; (ii) make a clear commitment that any reforms agreed through political dialogue will be implemented in accordance with the Constitution and laws of Fiji; (iii) undertake and sustain serious and credible election preparations, including allocation of necessary resources to the Office of the Supervisor of Elections, and the prompt preparation of the electoral roll; and (iv) make a renewed commitment that the military will withdraw from civilian politics following such an election, return to barracks, and submit to the authority of the elected civilian government in accordance with the Constitution."
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